The heat has been turned up several notches domestically in the criticism of Iraq war policy lately by Democrats, all with the underlying theme that (a) we were misled into war based upon manipulated intelligence information, (b) we are losing and (c) we need to get out sooner rather than later.
The irony that insurgent/terrorist attacks upon the Iraqi civilian population is drastically increasing coincidentally with these fresh attacks by American liberals hopefully is not lost on anyone.
Here are two must-reads by thinkers in the media. The first from retired Army officer Ralph Peters in the New York Post.
HOW TO LOSE A WAR
By RALPH PETERS
QUIT. It's that simple. There are plenty of more complex ways to lose
a war, but none as reliable as just giving up.
Increasingly,
quitting looks like the new American Way of War. No matter how great your team,
you can't win the game if you walk off the field at half-time. That's precisely
what the Democratic Party wants America to do in Iraq. Forget the fact that
we've made remarkable progress under daunting conditions: The Dems are looking
to throw the game just to embarrass the Bush administration.
Forget
about the consequences. Disregard the immediate encouragement to the terrorists
and insurgents to keep killing every American soldier they can. Ignore what
would happen in Iraq — and the region — if we bail out. And don't mention how a
U.S. surrender would turn al Qaeda into an Islamic superpower, the champ who
knocked out Uncle Sam in the third round.
Forget
about our dead soldiers, whose sacrifice is nothing but a political club for
Democrats to wave in front of the media. After all, one way to create the kind
of disaffection in the ranks that the Dems' leaders yearn to see is to tell our
troops on the battlefield that they're risking their lives for nothing, we're
throwing the game.
Forget
that our combat veterans are re-enlisting at remarkable rates — knowing
they'll have to leave their families and go back to war again. Ignore the
progress on the ground, the squeezing of the insurgency's last strongholds into
the badlands on the Syrian border. Blow off the successive Iraqi elections and
the astonishing cooperation we've seen between age-old enemies as they struggle
to form a decent government.
Just
set a time-table for our troops to come home and show the world that America is
an unreliable ally with no stomach for a fight, no matter the stakes involved.
Tell the world that deserting the South Vietnamese and fleeing from Somalia weren't
anomalies — that's what Americans do.
While
we're at it, let's just print up recruiting posters for the terrorists,
informing the youth of the Middle East that Americans are cowards who can be
attacked with impunity.
Whatever
you do, don't talk about any possible consequences. Focus on the moment
— and the next round of U.S. elections. Just make political points. After all,
those dead American soldiers and Marines don't matter — they didn't go to Ivy
League schools. (Besides, most would've voted Republican had they lived.)
America's
security? Hah! As long as the upcoming elections show Democratic gains, let the
terrorist threat explode. So what if hundreds of thousands of Middle Easterners
might die in a regional war? So what if violent fundamentalism gets a shot of
steroids? So what if we make Abu Musab al-Zarqawi the most successful Arab of
the past 500 years?
For
God's sake, don't talk about democracy in the Middle East. After all, democracy
wasn't much fun for the Dems in 2000 or 2004. Why support it overseas, when
it's been so disappointing at home?
Human
rights? Oh, dear. Human rights are for rich white people who live in Malibu.
Unless you can use the issue to whack Republicans. Otherwise, brown, black or
yellow people can die by the millions. Dean, Reid & Pelosi, LLC, won't say,
"Boo!"
You've
got to understand, my fellow citizens: None of this matters. And you
don't matter, either. All that matters is scoring political points. Let the
world burn. Let the massacres run on. Let the terrorists acquire WMD. Just give
the Bush administration a big black eye and we'll call that a win.
The
irresponsibility of the Democrats on Capitol Hill is breathtaking. (How can an
honorable man such as Joe Lieberman stay in that party?) Not one of the critics
of our efforts in Iraq — not one — has described his or her vision for
Iraq and the Middle East in the wake of a troop withdrawal. Not one has offered
any analysis of what the terrorists would gain and what they might do. Not one
has shown respect for our war dead by arguing that we must put aside our
partisan differences and win.
There's
plenty I don't like about the Bush administration. Its domestic policies
disgust me, and the Bushies got plenty wrong in Iraq. But at least they'll
fight. The Dems are ready to betray our troops, our allies and our country's
future security for a few House seats.
Surrender
is never a winning strategy.
Yes,
we've been told lies about Iraq — by Dems and their media groupies. About
conditions on the ground. About our troops. About what's at stake. About the
consequences of running away from the great struggle of our time. About the
continuing threat from terrorism. And about the consequences for you and your
family.
What
do the Democrats fear? An American success in Iraq. They need us to fail, and
they're going to make us fail, no matter the cost. They need to declare defeat
before the 2006 mid-term elections and ensure a real debacle before 2008 — a
bloody mess they'll blame on Bush, even though they made it themselves.
We
won't even talk about the effect quitting while we're winning in Iraq might
have on the go-to-war calculations of other powers that might want to challenge
us in the future. Let's just be good Democrats and prove that Osama bin Laden
was right all along: Americans have no stomach for a fight.
As
for the 2,000-plus dead American troops about whom the lefties are so awfully
concerned? As soon as we abandon Iraq, they'll forget about our casualties
quicker than an amnesiac forgets how much small-change he had in his pocket.
If we
run away from our enemies overseas, our enemies will make their way to us. Quit
Iraq, and far more than 2,000 Americans are going to die.
And
they won't all be conservatives.
Ralph
Peters is a retired Army officer.
The big question is why. What moves a group of people to
become so affected by herd instinct that an idea like this, on which
bad outcomes can easily be predicted, becomes acceptable, even
desirable?
Here is an excellent analysis of the herding instinct which produces
so much misery, from a recent edition of the
Wall Street Journal. This particular analysis has to do with the latest demagoguery
of oil companies at the hands of populist Senators, but the lessons of herd mentality are similarly
instructive for the bandwagoning of the Iraq issue.
The Rational
Herd
November 23, 2005; Holman Jenkins
A handy idea for making sense of the modern world is the idea of
an "availability cascade." It employs economics to explain how people
come to hold faddish beliefs, even when those beliefs are at odds with other
beliefs they hold or information they possess.
You can see this dynamic in Washington's lowbrow burlesque over
gasoline prices. The idea is also known as rational herding. Senators in the
recent grilling of energy CEOs couldn't have made it plainer that they were
flinging charges of manipulation not because they believed them but because
they believed their constituents believe them. Senators also let it be known
they were perfectly prepared to enact unwise policies rather than argue with
constituent misperceptions.
Said Republican Pete Domenici: "Polls show that our people
have a growing suspicion that the oil companies are taking unfair advantage of
the current market conditions to line their coffers with excess profits . . .
My constituents think that somebody rigs these prices, that in the process
somebody is getting ripped off."
Said Democrat Byron Dorgan, explaining why he was forced to
introduce a bill confiscating the "windfall" profits of oil
companies: "A consumer says to us, 'You know, Mr. and Mrs. Politician,
what I see are big economic interests getting rich here.'"
This hand-washing is the essence of childishness but the
political class is far from the helpless sock puppet of an ignorant or
misinformed public. The same voters, in any poll, would happily affirm that the
world is running out of oil, that the supply is controlled by unreliable
foreigners. Yet let gasoline rise to $3.00 a gallon, and suddenly they believe
that only the ruthless profiteering of oil companies stands between them and
cheap and abundant gasoline.
The public doesn't adopt beliefs directly at odds with its other
beliefs without help. In the latest instance, help came from state attorneys
general who, at the first sign of a spiking gas prices, ran to the nearest TV
cameras and proclaimed crackdowns on price gouging. It came from the media and
politicians declaiming against Exxon's quarterly profit of $10 billion as
aberrant and suspicious -- never mind that at 10% of sales, Exxon's profit
margin was hardly out of line with those of other industries.
'Availability cascade" is a term coined by Cass Sunstein
and Timur Kuran in an important 1999 Stanford Law Review article. Their work
follows distinguished prior work on informational cascades (when people knowing
little about an issue take their cue from others) and reputational cascades
(involving the rational incentive to go along with the crowd). All owe a debt
to the Nobel Prize-winning work of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, who coined
the term "availability bias" for people's willingness to judge the
odds of a given event occurring based on how readily an example comes to mind.
The key is to remember that acquiring information is costly and
that people look for shortcuts. Imagine a situation in which gifts are being
distributed in red and blue boxes. You don't know what the boxes contain but
everyone in line is asking for a red box. Therefore, you ask for a red box too,
assuming they must know something you don't and because you want to appear
"in the know" too.
This is rational herding. Now consider that everyone was thinking
just like you, and that the chain began only because a prominent individual was
seen picking a red box.
Put aside the reliance on jargon: That even intelligent people
are capable of holding passionate views on matters to which they have given
little thought or study is hardly a revelation. A plausible explanation indeed
is that such people model their beliefs on the apparent beliefs of others whom
they presume to be better informed.
Though the authors focused in their original article on
environmental scares (and cited the presence of "availability
entrepreneurs" who try to advance their agendas by inciting public
misperceptions), their reasoning is widely applicable. After all, what was the
collective estimate of the world's intelligence agencies about Saddam's WMD but
an informational cascade? And, with rather more deliberation, what are
Democrats now trying to create but an availability cascade for the belief that
the Bush administration "lied" about Saddam's capabilities and
intentions?
Messrs. Kuran and Sunstein used their Stanford article to
suggest formal mechanisms to slow availability cascades that "spread
empirically baseless information" and create "formidable political
pressure in support of wasteful or counterproductive regulations." Among
their ideas were creating a respected website to retail accurate risk
information and greater reliance on formal risk-benefit analysis and peer
review in the legislative and regulatory process.
Pierre Lemeiux, an economist at the University of Quebec who has
also explored the practical implications of this work, points to cascade theory
as reinforcing the classical case for protecting unpopular speech and
cultivating the checks and balances of a decentralized state.
The danger of public
herding in the media age is obvious but it can be overstated. Informational
cascades are inherently fragile -- because they're based on slight information,
thus ripe to be reversed when better information becomes available. It's the
"reputational cascades" -- in which influential members of the public
adopt positions based on fear of unpopularity or career damage -- and the
resulting unnatural unanimity among elites that poses the real danger. So the
senators rushing to enact punitive attacks on oil companies -- and blaming public
opinion for making them do it -- let themselves off the hook too easily.
Again, the question is why. Why do people succumb to faulty thinking
in an attempt for gains which, if procured, are less meaningful because
they were obtained under dubious pretenses?
This, in a nutshell, is about all the left has at its disposal.
Argument based on faulty logic, accentuated by moral preening and faux outrage, doled
out with the expectation that it will snow the opposition long enough to obtain
the desired results.
It has worked quite well for the last 40 years or so. We anticipate that it is coming to a close.
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